ارزیابی پویای توازن اجتماعی در اقتصاد ایران مبتنی بر الگوی تکافل شهید صدر: مدل‌سازی غیر خطی سری زمانی (۱۴۰۳-۱۳۶۸)

Achieving social justice in the Islamic economic model necessitates the simultaneous provision of public Takaful (livelihood sufficiency) and social balance (eliminating severe inequalities and establishing livelihood equilibrium). Aiming to diagnose the state of justice in the Iranian economy (1989–2024), the present study designs the Shahid Sadr Social Balance Index based on the theoretical foundations of the book Iqtisaduna, and examines the factors influencing it using the Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) approach. Descriptive findings indicate that the apparent improvement in inequality indices in recent years (2022–2024) has been accompanied by a decline in real household welfare, which exemplifies the phenomenon of "downward convergence" or the "distribution of poverty." Furthermore, while confirming the asymmetric effect of inflation, the model's estimation results demonstrate that inflationary shocks, by eroding the purchasing power of the middle class, have mathematically improved the balance index. Moreover, the analysis of short-term coefficients reveals that cash subsidy policies (such as the 2010 shock), despite having an immediate positive impact on the index, yielded unsustainable welfare effects due to the inflationary nature of their financing (cost-push inflation). Consequently, a paradigm shift from cash subsidies derived from price adjustments toward production-oriented Takaful, alongside prioritizing inflation control as the fundamental prerequisite for justice, is recommended.