سنجش تأثیر زکات الکترونیکی بر فقرزدایی: رویکرد سیستم داینامیک

Zakat, as one of the financial pillars of Islam, has a high potential for poverty alleviation, but its traditional system faces challenges such as lack of transparency, low trust, and distribution inefficiency. The aim of the present study is to design and simulate a dynamic system model to measure the impact of electronic Zakat based on blockchain technology on poverty reduction in Iran, emphasizing the role of psychosocial variables. This study was conducted with a dynamic system approach and using Vensim DSS software. Real data including household expenditure-income statistics (Statistical Center of Iran), social capital indicators (national surveys), and Zakat statistics (Relief Committee) were collected for the period 1398-1402. For variables related to blockchain technology and future scenarios, simulated data based on expert opinion were used. The model is simulated over a 20-year horizon (1403-1423) under four main scenarios: baseline, increased coverage, improved transparency, and hybrid. The most important innovation of this study is the modeling of the “psychological effect of social takaful” as an endogenous variable in the system. The application of the dynamic system approach to the analysis of e-zakat and the use of combined real-simulation data are other innovations of the research. The validation results of the model (MAPE=1/1%) indicate its high accuracy in reproducing historical behavior. The findings show that in the baseline scenario, the poverty rate will increase from 31/5 to 34/2 percent over the next 20 years. The scenario of increasing e-zakat coverage (without radical transparency) reduces the poverty rate by 4/1 percentage points, while the blockchain-based improved transparency scenario shows a reduction of 5/8 percentage points. The combined scenario (maximum coverage, full transparency, and 50% allocation of funds to empowerment) has been identified as the most effective scenario,