Pathology of Refining Industry Policymaking in Iran Based on Content Analysis of Upstream Documents and Laws in the Oil and Gas Sector

Despite the repeated emphasis of Iran’s upstream policy documents and national development laws—particularly the General Policies of the Resistance Economy—on reducing crude oil exports, increasing exports of refined products, and completing the oil and gas value chain, Iran’s refining industry continues to face a significant gap between approved objectives and actual performance outcomes. This study aims to diagnose policy failures in the refining industry through a qualitative approach based on content analysis of upstream documents, with a special focus on the General Policies of the Resistance Economy, development plan laws, and specialized oil and gas regulations. Using gap analysis techniques, the study examines the divergence between the goals articulated in these documents and the performance indicators of the refining sector.
The findings reveal that the failure to achieve targeted refining capacities, the persistence of a high share of heavy products, the low complexity index of refineries, and the slow development of petro‑refining all reflect a misalignment among the governing paradigm, goal‑setting practices, institutional structures, and policy instruments. At the paradigmatic level, the dominance of a fuel‑oriented logic over a value‑creation‑oriented approach is evident. At the goal-setting level, the absence of a long‑term capacity‑building roadmap persists. Institutionally, overlapping roles and fragmented governance are observed. At the instrument level, instability and inefficiency of policy tools remain problematic. Accordingly, sustainable transformation in the refining industry will only be achievable through a reconfiguration of the policymaking architecture and the creation of institutional alignment among paradigms, objectives, structures, and decision‑making instruments.