Modeling the realization of a resistance economy with an emphasis on economic extraversion on Economic Growth: A systemic dynamics approach
Document Type : Research Paper
Authors
1 economics faculty, payamnoor university, semnan
2 alame university
10.30497/ies.2023.243458.2116
Abstract
In the introduction of the announcement of the general policies of the resistance economy, it is stated that "with the aim of providing dynamic growth with a jihadist approach, endogenous and exogenous general policies of the resistance economy are announced." One of the goals of realizing a resistance economy is to achieve dynamic growth with an outward-looking approach to the economy, and choosing a suitable currency system is considered one of the necessary and necessary conditions to achieve this goal. The purpose of this research is to design a dynamic and systematic simulation model in order to determine the appropriate currency system for strong interaction with international markets (economic externalization). Therefore, the question is raised, which is the appropriate currency system to achieve dynamic economic growth with an emphasis on externalization of the economy? In this article, using the systemic dynamics approach and with the help of Vensim software, the macroeconomic model is designed. In order to find a suitable currency system, the nominal exchange rate changes on the variables of the external sector of the economy, i.e. export, import and balance of payments and national production for the period of 1396-1440 have been investigated. Changes in exports and imports have been evaluated in four states: stabilization, multiple jump, small initial increase, and mild and continuous increase in the exchange rate. The results of the implementation of the model show that the balance of payments (externalization) and as a result economic growth in inflationary conditions becomes positive only in the case of an increase in the exchange rate proportional to the inflation rate, and in a situation where the exchange rate is stabilized, the balance of payments has the most unfavorable conditions. As a result, the managed floating currency system is considered the best currency policy for the externalization of the economy.
Keywords
https://www.cbi.ir/category/EconomicReport_fa.aspx
Akhbari Mohammad, Qolizadeh Siddiqa (2014). Macroeconomic stability in the resistance economy approach, Trend Quarterly, Meshode 71, pp. 55-78.
Amini, Alireza, and Zare, Sahar. (2016). Analysis of the role of the real exchange rate and its fluctuations on Iran's industrial exports. Financial Economics (Financial Economics and Development), 11(38), 99
Amiri Tehrani, Seyyed Mohammad Reza (2014). Systemic foundations of resistance economy. Economic essays of Iran, Q 12, No 23, pp 33-51
Bahmani Eskowi, Mohsen (2012). The origin of inflation stagnation in an oil country: Evidence from Iran. Economic researches and policies, (12-26)
Baldwin, R. (1988) “Hysteresis in Import Prices: the beachhead effect", American Economic Review, 78(4), pp. 773–785.
Baldwin, R. and Krugman, P. (1989). “Persistent Trade Effects of Large Exchange Rate Shocks”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 104(4), pp. 635–654.
Baye, Michael. Managerial Economics and Business Strategy. Mc Graw-Hill, Singapore, 2008.
Birgulio , L . (2011). Growth with resilience ; perspectives from the commonwealth and the Franceophonie and recommend dations and la francophonie.
Blinder. A. S., & Rudd. J. B. (2010).The supply-shock explanation of the great stagflation revisited. Paper presented at the NBER conference on the great inflation, Woodstock, VT, February revision.
Brigulio , L . (2004) , Economic Vulnerability an Resilience : concepts and Measurements. In Briguglio , L . and Ieisanga, E.J. (eds), Vulnerability and Resilience of small states. Commonwealth secretariat and university of malta,43-53
Dehmarde Qala Nou, Nazar, Azadegan, Ali, and Bahrami, Fahima. (2018). Analysis of short-term and long-term relationships of underlying factors in the realization of resistance economy and prosperity of domestic production. Interdisciplinary studies of strategic knowledge, 9(35), 137-162.
Esfandiari Safa, Khosrow, and Dehghan, Habib Elah. (2015). Components of resistance economy from the point of view of the Supreme Leader (God Almighty). Military Management, 16(61), 60-84.
Espanello, Hashem; and Ghanbari, Ali (1389). Investigating the influencing factors on Iran's import demand by
Fang Hu T. 1990. Fundamental determinants of the real exchange rate: A NATREX approach. Doctor thesis، University of Oklahoma State.Evaluation of Research. CESifo Working Papers 525.
Fang, W.S. and Thompson, H. (2004). “Exchange Rates Risk and Export Revenue in Taiwan”, Pacific Economic Review, 9(2), pp. 117–129.
Fang, W.S., Lai, Y.H. and Miller, S.M. (2006) “Export Promotion through Exchange Rate Changes: Exchange Rate Depreciation of Stabilization?”, Southern Economic Journal, 72(3), pp. 611–626.
Fang, W.S., Lai, Y.H. and Miller, S.M. (2009) “Does Exchange Rate Risk Affect Exports Asymmetrically?”, Asian Journal of International Money and Finance, 28, pp. 215–239.
Forozan Far, Mohammad Hossein, Mollah Hosseini, Ali, Riahi, Mohammad Ali, and Najafipour, Amir Abbas. (2018). Designing a resistance economy model based on the Supreme Leader's statements. Islamic Revolution Research, 8(31), 179-196.
Forrester, J. W. (1968) Market growth as influenced by capital investment, Industrial Management Review 9(2), 83-105. Also reprinted in Roberts (1978).
Forrester, J. W. (1969) Urban Dynamics. Waltham, MA: Pegasus Communications.
Forrester, Jay W. System Dynamics and the Lessons of 35 Years, Germeshausen Professor Emeritus and Senior Lecturer, Sloan School of Management Massachusetts Institute of Technology, A chapter for The Systemic Basis ofPolicy Making in the 1990s. April 29, 1991.
Forrester, Jay W. The Beginning of System Dynamics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology,Cambridge, Massachusetts, U.S.A.,Banquet Talkat the international meeting of the System Dynamics Society Stuttgart, Germany, July 13, l989.
Ghafarpour, Daud; and Pourhatami, Zohra (2014) Resistance economy, strategies and solutions. Treasure of Education, Volume 3, Number 21
Haji Gholam Serizdi, Ali, Rajabzadeh Qatari, Ali, Mashaikhi, Ali Naqi, and Hassanzadeh, Alireza. (2019). Designing a dynamic model of crowdfunding system in Iran. New Researches in Decision Making, 5(2), 49-80.
Hajigholam Serizdi, Lagi, and Zare Mehrjardi (1392). Dynamic System, Almas Alborz Publications, first edition.
Halafi, Hamidreza. (1386). Real exchange rate and economic growth of Iran. Economic Research, 42(79), 59-75.
Hosseini Dolatabadi, Seyyed Mehdi, and Taherifard, Ali. (2014). The effect of positive exchange rate shock on GDP. Majlis and Strategy, 22(81), 171-186.
Ismaili Zari h. 2018. The effect of productivity on the effective real exchange rate in Iran during the period from 1980 to 2005 (Balsa-Samuelson effect test in Iran's economy). Master's thesis. Faculty of Administrative Sciences and Economics. University of Esfahan.
Jalai A, Hari H, Irani Kermani F. (1385). Estimation of the behavior of the real exchange rate in Iran. Economic Research Journal, 22.
Kaoru Yamaguchi.(2005). Aggregate Demand Equilibria and Price Flexibility :SD macro economic modeling (2). In Proceedings of the 23nd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Boston, USA. The System Dynamics So ciety.
Kaoru Yamaguchi.(2009). Integration of Real and Monetary Sectors with Lab or Market: SD macroeconomic mo deling (3). In Proceedings of the 24th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society , Nijmegen, The
Kaoru Yamaguchi.(2009). Logical vs Historical Time in a Price Adjustment Mechanism. In Proceedings of the 27th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Albuquerque, New Mexico. The System Dynamics So ciety.
Kaoru Yamaguchi. (2004). Money Supply and Creation of Dep osits : SD macro economic mo deling (1).In Proceedings of the 22nd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Oxford, England. The System Dynamics So ciety.
Kaoru Yamaguchi. (2010). On the Liquidation of Government Debt Under a Debt free Money System: Mo deling the american monetary act. In Proceedings of the 28th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society , Seoul, Korea. The System Dynamics So ciety.
Kaoru Yamaguchi.(2008). Op en Macro economies As a Closed Economic System: SD macro economic mo deling completed. In Proceedings of the 26th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society , Athens, Greece (2008). The System Dynamics So ciety.
Kaoru Yamaguchi.(2003). Principle of Accounting System Dynamics– Mo deling corp orate financial statements –. In Proceedings of the 21st International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, New York. System Dynamics So ciety.
Kazrooni, Seyed Alireza, and Rostami, Nasreen. (1386). Asymmetric effects of exchange rate fluctuations on real production and prices in Iran (1381-1340). Economic Journal, 7(2 (series 25)), 177-196.
Kelly Wendy, Zainab. (2012). Resistance economy: fields, strategies and implementation measures. Pioneers of Progress Congress.
Khush-e-Sherh, Mohammad, Irwani, Mohammad Javad, Hosseini, Seyyed Shamsuddin, and Alavi, Hamid. (2018). Providing a strategic model of national production with a resistance economy approach. National Defense Strategic Management Studies, 3(11), 325-372.
Lal Khazri, Hamid and Taheri Bazkhane, Saleh and Najafzadeh, Safiya. (2012). Stabilization of exchange rate and realization of resistance economy
Mashayekhi Ali Naqi., The impact of exchange rate policy on inflation rate in an oilexporting economy, SDR, 1991.
Mashayekhi Ali Naqi., The impact of exchange rate policy on inflation rate in an oil exporting economy, SDR, 1991.
Mehrabian, A, Tawfighi, H, (2017), study of the factors affecting the demand for the import of consumer, capital and intermediate goods, Iran Economic Research, Volume 4, Number 13, Pages 57-74.
Netherlands, 2006. The System Dynamics So cietyKaoru Yamaguchi. Balance of Payments and Foreign Exchange Dynamics: SD macro economic mo deling (4). In Proceedings of the 25th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Boston, USA, 2007. The System Dynamics So ciety.
Nofarsti, Mohammad. (2015). Resistance economy and ways to achieve it. Strategic and macro policies, 4 (special issue (resistance economy)), 157-168.
Peter Sange, (1377) "The Fifth Command", translated by Hafez Kamal Hidayat, Industrial Management Organization Publications.
Pourmasoumi, Saeed, Shatab Bushehri, Seyednader, Arbab Shirani, Behrouz, and Meshaikhi, Ali Naghi. (1389). A system dynamics model to analyze Iran's economy-energy system. Sharif Industrial Engineering and Management, 26(2), 71-87-
Qavami Seyyed Hasan. Designing an effective model to moderate the structural inflation of Iran's economy with a resistance economy approach. Management of tomorrow. 2018.
Rahman, S. and Serletis, A. (2009) “The Effects of Exchange Rate Uncertainty on Exports", Journal of Macroeconomics, 31, pp. 500-507.
Sterman J., ”Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World ”, Irwin/ McGraw Hill, 2000.
Rai, Nireh, and Mohseni Zenouzi, Seyyed Jamaluddin. (2015). Examining the components of the resistance economy in the government's revenue system and its impact on Iran's economic growth. Strategic and macro policies, 4 (special issue (resistance economy)), 115-132.
Raskhi Saeed, Shahrazadi Milad and Abdullahi Mohammadreza, (2012) Asymmetric effect of exchange rate and its fluctuation on Iran's non-oil exports, Researches on economic growth and development, number 7.
Raskhi, Saeed, Shahrazi, Milad, and Abdulahi, Mohammadreza. (2011). Asymmetric effect of exchange rate and its fluctuation on Iran's non-oil exports. Economic Growth and Development Research, 2(7), 149-167.
Researcher, Mohammad Hossein. (2014). Obstacles to realization of resistance economy. Islamic Social Research, 21(3 (series 106)), 185-238.
Seif, Elah Murad, Ghazanfari, Mehdi, Dehghan, Nabi Elah, Oghahi, Babak, and Moradsi, Faisal. (2017). Conceptual model of export-oriented production in resistance economy. Interdisciplinary Studies of Strategic Knowledge, 8(32), 217-245.
Sepanlou, H., Ghanbari A. (2009), study of the factors affecting Iran's import demand by separating intermediate, capital and consumer goods, Business Journal | Course 15 | No. 57, 209-233.
separating intermediate, capital and consumer goods, Journal of Commerce, Volume 15, Number 57, 209-233.
Shaghaghi Shahri, Vahid, and Karim, Mohammad Hossein. (2015). The effects of financial corruption on the endogeneity of the Iranian economy in line with the general policies of the resistance economy. Strategic and macro policies, 4 (special issue (resistance economy)), 63-90.
Sterman John, System Dynamics Modeling: Tools for Learning in A Complex World, California Management Review, Vol. 43 No. 4, Summer 2001.
Sterman, John D. all models are wrong: reflections on becoming a systems scientist, Jay Wright Forrester Prize Lecture, 2002.
Yousafzai, Daoud (2018). Comparative study of the government's financial policies on macro variables from the perspective of Islamic economics and conventional economics with system dynamics approach, Master's Thesis, Ahl al-Bayt University.
Zargrani, Saeed, Hajinejad, Afsana, (2014), Cooperation and Realization of Resistance Economy. - Ghafarpour, Daud, Pourhatami, Zohra, 2013, Resistance Economy, Strategies and Solutions, 3, p. 21.
)